Notes On Palestine
It is far too early at this stage to discuss potential fall out and implications of the latest episode of Zionist aggression. War has a terrible habit of upending assumptions, predictions and more often than not creates a hyperkinetic situation where escalation becomes the norm.
Yet, it is so vital to understand the regional dynamics in which the conflict is unfolding. This is no longer the MENA region of the early 2000s or 2010s. This is a region that has undergone tremendous change.
The utter failures of the Arab Spring, the continued retreat of Erdoganism from projecting Sunni soft power to Turkic solidarity, the changing of the guard amongst Gulf royals, American exhaustion and Chinese vitality. Indeed, one would need a separate piece to document the evolution of the Iranian position particularly after the horrors it inflicted in Syria and the assassination of Soleimani.
To summarise there are three main points worthy of consideration:
Internal instability and fierce divisions within Iran and Türkiye in view of the events of the last few years has forced a more pragmatic outlook on geopolitics. There is little appetite left for regional/imperial ambitions even for soft-power purposes. Instead the focus has been towards hashing out bilateral regional agreements emphasizing the more mundane state-building exercises of economic partnership, financial cooperation, technology exchange and sharing. Leadership in both countries face questions over its competency with economies spiralling out of control, accusations of corruption and cronyism rife. Both players need concrete wins to reassure their respective publics that they are capable of governing. This created the conditions for Iranian-Saudi thawing brokered by the Chinese.. It forced Türkiye to re-establish a meaningful economic relationship with its much richer and competent GCC rivals. See here, here and here as a few examples. It even prompted Erdogan to go see Netanyahu and switcht the field of engagement again towards energy, technology, artificial intelligence and cyber security.
The GCC have achieved effective rapprochement with Qatar now firmly back in the fold with lessons learnt that the blockade and policy of isolation was hugely counter-productive. It also threatened the region's aspirations of being a stable outpost of prosperity and development. That is not to say that regional rivalries do not exist. They do persist with Saudi and UAE now competing fiercely in all areas and fields. Qatar continues to forge its own geopolitical destiny by offering refuge to the leadership of Muslim resistance movements within its borders whilst also deepening its partnership with the United States. The GCC has also moved away from the conventional American arrangement for the region. considerable effort being expended to move away from the client-state moniker to some vision of self-sufficiency and sovereignty albeit in nationalistic terms rather than pan-Islamic sentiment. GCC sovereign wealth funds have massively expanded their portfolios to the point it is starting to make financial regulators in Western capitals nervous and touchy. Qatari ambition sought to capitalise on the Russian-Ukranian conflict by aggressively moving towards being the supplier for EU energy needs. MBS has realised the importance of moving the Kingdom's portfolio towards the mining of energy transition metals which may prove to be the key question around energy sovereignty in the latter half of this century.
Israel itself particularly in the aftermath of COVID-19 has undergone tremendous change. Israel perhaps more than any other country was incredibly aggressive in its response with lockdowns and an extensive programme of vaccination courtesy of its links and relationships with pharmaceutical and biotech companies. It was a model of pandemic management that was emulated by other GCC nations but not quite to the same degree. In pursuing such a policy, Netanyahu effectively allowed his party to expand the reach of their powers with little scrutiny in all facets of Israeli life. His government since has been dogged repeatedly by accusations of corruption, cronyism, corrupting Israel's judicial system, court capture and favouring even amongst Zionists the most extreme factions within Israel's diverse and divided Jewry. Faced with its own questions about competence and aggression, Netanyahu pursued a policy of repeated aggression, annexation and attacks against the Palestinian people to present himself as a "strongman".
Sunni and Shia powers in the region are maturing, wishing to prepare for the eventual American retreat and establish multi-dimesional relationships across areas that will eventually become national security issues even amongst the consciousness of ordinary people - energy and technology chief amongst them. In doing so they are open to partnering up with China and Russia if the deal suits them. The days of fixed blocs I suspect (apparent during the Arab Spring) are now gone - now is a time of flux where each player decides affairs on a case by case basis prioritising national interest over soft power considerations. In a time of evolving political maturity from all parties despite catastrophic mistakes ("Abraham Accords") the Zionists have descended into a banana republic.
Its institutions hollowed out, its competence dwindling in the fact of ever more extreme mutations of its own foundational ideology. It is as if within its own founding, Zionism carries with it the seeds of its own destruction. In view of all of this, the only one who truly benefits from recent events is Netanyahu himself. He can appoint himself as Caesar granting emergency powers and an emergency government. Despite this though, public opinion against Zionists is still heavily set against Netanyahu with awful approval ratings and media opinion being mobilised against him domestically.
And truly God knows best